EVALUATION COMPLETE
Problem
The proposal responds to population growth and congestion on the M1 Pacific Motorway, with travel times between the Port of Brisbane and the NSW border forecast to increase without intervention.
The proposed motorway would provide an alternative north-south route for local and shorter distance trips between Loganholme and Coomera, reducing reliance on the M1 and separating local traffic from longer distance commuter, freight and interstate movements.
Strategic Fit
The proposal demonstrates a strong case for change based on expected population growth and aligns broadly with national policies. However, the proposal does not currently provide a sustainable long-term solution, with further infrastructure and demand management measures required to manage future congestion.
Societal Impact
The proposal is expected to deliver travel time savings and improve network resilience. However, several sections of Coomera Connector Future Stages are forecast to be near or at capacity during peak periods by 2046, five years after the opening of the new road, leading to further congestion.
Deliverability
The scale and complexity of the proposal presents significant delivery risks, and there is a risk that costs will exceed current estimates. Further investigations and market engagement are required to improve confidence in the proposal’s cost estimate and delivery feasibility.
Next Steps
- We recommend the Australian Government provides staged planning and development funding for activities that will increase the certainty of costs and benefits for the Coomera Connector Future Stages program, to better inform future delivery investment decisions.
- As currently defined the proposal does not provide a sustainable long-term solution for the corridor, with current Queensland Government modelling showing congestion returning 5 years after the preferred option would open. The Queensland Government acknowledges that demand management measures such as smart motorway technology and additional local infrastructure will be required to improve residual congestion. This is outside the scope of the current business case, with funding and delivery of these measures to be considered by the proponent at a later date.
- As part of a future request for delivery investment, the Queensland Government should demonstrate the full extent of required infrastructure in the corridor to manage congestion, the timing for staged implementation, and the role of complementary public transport to provide long-term benefits for the community.
- Future submissions should also incorporate updated evidence on land use rezoning and land release arrangements expected in the corridor, set and report on housing targets, and demonstrate alignment to the South East Queensland Regional Transport Plan, which is currently under review.
- Given the 13-year delivery schedule, with early works to commence in 2028, we also recommend the Queensland Government continues to mitigate identified risks and progress market sounding.
