EVALUATION COMPLETE
The Wave is a program of major transport infrastructure projects proposed for the Sunshine Coast, announced as part of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games Delivery Plan. The program is proposed to be delivered in three stages, with Stages 1 and 2 delivering a heavy passenger rail line between Beerwah and Birtinya (formerly the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Project), integrating with Stage 3, which proposes a metro‑style service extending to the Sunshine Coast Airport.
Growing population and heavy reliance on private vehicles have contributed to increasing congestion on the Sunshine Coast, with public transport currently accounting for only 1% of trips. The proposal seeks to extend rail services from Caloundra to Birtinya to encourage public transport use, reduce road congestion, and improve the efficiency and sustainability of the transport network.
Strategic Fit
The proposal responds to strong population growth and high car dependency on the Sunshine Coast and aligns with Commonwealth and Queensland Government objectives to improve connectivity and support growth. However, modelling indicates that the proposal will only make a modest contribution to mode shift, congestion reduction and land use outcomes.
The proposal will improve public transport connectivity between population and employment areas within the Sunshine Coast, and to Brisbane. Improved intercity connectivity will support continued population growth on the Sunshine Coast and the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
The proposal would deliver significant travel time improvements for public transport users and drivers, providing a 90-minute public transport journey from Birtinya to Brisbane. However, the Queensland Government estimates there will be only a 0.1% incremental increase in public transport use as a result of investment in Stage 2, and project costs are expected to significantly exceed benefits.
Deliverability
The Queensland Government has progressed with early procurement, market engagement and governance planning, and the current program is intended to support delivery ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games. However, delivery remains complex and challenging, with key risks relating to approvals, utilities, geotechnical conditions, market capacity, funding timing. Contingency allowances appear understated which reduces confidence in cost and delivery outcomes.
- We recommend the Queensland Government implements a range of complementary measures, in addition to those already planned, to encourage public transport use and maximise the benefits of investment.
- We recommend the Queensland Government revise the cost estimate contingency, risk register and quantitative risk assessment to reflect the current status of proposal development, governance and delivery plans.
