Guide to risk and uncertainty analysis

In this document, we describe tools that can help you understand and manage risks and uncertainties when developing an infrastructure proposal. These tools include qualitative risk assessment, probability-based analysis, sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and real options analysis.

Risk and uncertainty both impact infrastructure projects throughout delivery and operation. It is important to test the robustness of proposed projects by understanding how they will perform under different conditions.

Risks are events that have probabilities of occurrence that are predictable, and outcomes that can be estimated with some confidence. Uncertainties are events where probabilities of occurrence are difficult to predict and outcomes are challenging to quantify.

This set of technical guidelines supports our Assessment Framework